Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part II: Evaluation of air quality predictions and air quality benefits assessment

Following the meteorological evaluation in Part I, this Part II paper presents the statistical evaluation of air quality predictions by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA)’s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) model for the four simulated months in the base year 2005. The surface predictions were evaluated using the Air Pollution Index (API) data published by the China Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) for 31 capital cities and daily fine particulate matter (PM_2.5, particles with aerodiameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) observations of an individual site in Tsinghua University (THU). To overcome the shortage in surface observations, satellite data are used to assess the column predictions including tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) column abundance and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The result shows that CMAQ gives reasonably good predictions for the air quality.The air quality improvement that would result from the targeted sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emission controls in China were assessed for the objective year 2010. The results show that the emission controls can lead to significant air quality benefits. SO₂ concentrations in highly polluted areas of East China in 2010 are estimated to be decreased by 30–60% compared to the levels in the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) case. The annual PM_2.5 can also decline by 3–15 μg m^?3 (4–25%) due to the lower SO₂ and sulfate concentrations. If similar controls are implemented for NO_x emissions, NO_x concentrations are estimated to decrease by 30–60% as compared with the 2010 BAU scenario. The annual mean PM_2.5 concentrations will also decline by 2–14 μg m^?3 (3–12%). In addition, the number of ozone (O₃) non-attainment areas in the northern China is projected to be much lower, with the maximum 1-h average O₃ concentrations in the summer reduced by 8–30 ppb.     

Accelerated carbonation of municipal solid waste incineration fly ashes

As a result of the EU Landfill Directive, the disposal of municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) fly ash is restricted to only a few landfill sites in the UK. Alternative options for the management of fly ash, such as sintering, vitrification or stabilization/solidification, are either costly or not fully developed. In this paper an accelerated carbonation step is investigated for use with fly ash. The carbonation reaction involving fly ash was found to be optimum at a water/solid ratio of 0.3 under ambient temperature conditions. The study of ash mineralogy showed the disappearance of lime/portlandite/calcium chloride hydroxide and the formation of calcite as carbonation proceeded. The leaching properties of carbonated ash were examined. Release of soluble salts, such as SO4, Cl, was reduced after carbonation, but is still higher than the landfill acceptance limits for hazardous waste. It was also found that carbonation had a significant influence on lead leachability. The lead release from carbonated ash, with the exception of one of the fly ashes studied, was reduced by 2-3 orders of magnitude.     

Current status and perspectives of accelerated carbonation processes on municipal waste combustion residues

The increasing volumes of municipal solid waste produced worldwide are encouraging the development of processes to reduce the environmental impact of this waste stream. Combustion technology can facilitate volume reduction of up to 90%, with the inorganic contaminants being captured in furnace bottom ash, and fly ash/APC residues. The disposal or reuse of these residues is however governed by the potential release of constituent contaminants into the environment. Accelerated carbonation has been shown to have a potential for improving the chemical stability and leaching behaviour of both bottom ash and fly ash/APC residues. However, the efficacy of carbonation depends on whether the method of gas application is direct or indirect. Also important are the mineralogy, chemistry and physical properties of the fresh ash, the carbonation reaction conditions such as temperature, contact time, CO₂ partial pressure and relative humidity. This paper reviews the main issues pertaining to the application of accelerated carbonation to municipal waste combustion residues to elucidate the potential benefits on the stabilization of such residues and for reducing CO₂ emissions. In particular, the modification of ash properties that occur upon carbonation and the CO₂ sequestration potential possible under different conditions are discussed. Although accelerated carbonation is a developing technology, it could be introduced in new incinerator facilities as a “finishing step” for both ash treatment and reduction of CO₂ emissions.     

Development and case study of a new-generation model-VAT for analyzing the boundary conditions influence on atmospheric mercury simulation

Atmospheric models are essential tools to study the behavior of air pollutants. To interpret the complicated atmospheric model simulations, a new-generation Model Visualization and Analysis Tool (Model-VAT) has been developed for scientists to analyze the model data and visualize the simulation results. The Model-VAT incorporates analytic functions of conventional tools and enhanced capabilities in flexibly accessing, analyzing, and comparing simulated results from multi-scale models with different map projections and grid resolutions. The performance of the Model-VAT is demonstrated by a case study of investigating the influence of boundary conditions (BCs) on the ambient Hg formation and transport simulated by the CMAQ model over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. The alternative BC options are taken from (1) default time-independent profiles, (2) outputs from a CMAQ simulation of a larger nesting domain, and (3) concentration files from GEOS-Chem (re-gridded and re-projected using the Model-VAT). The three BC inputs and simulated ambient concentrations and deposition were compared using the Model-VAT. The results show that the model simulations based on the static BCs (default profile) underestimates the Hg concentrations by ~6.5%, dry depositions by ~9.4%, and wet depositions by ~43.2% compared to those of the model-derived (e. g. GEOS-Chem or nesting CMAQ) BCs. This study highlights the importance of model nesting approach and demonstrates that the innovative functions of Model-VAT enhances the efficiency of analyzing and comparing the model results from various atmospheric model simulations.

Open image in new window

     

Native fish diversity alters the effects of an invasive species on food webs

Aquatic communities have been altered by invasive species, with impacts on native biodiversity and ecosystem function. At the same time, native biodiversity may mitigate the effects of an invader. Common carp (Cyprinus carpio) is a ubiquitous, invasive fish species that strongly influences community and ecosystem processes. We used common carp to test whether the potential effects of an invasive species are altered across a range of species diversity in native communities. In mesocosms, treatments of zero, one, three, and six native fish species were used to represent the nested subset patterns observed in fish communities of lakes in Illinois, USA. The effect of the invader was tested across fish richness treatments by adding common carp to the native community and substituting native biomass with common carp. Native species and intraspecific effects reduced invader growth. The invader reduced native fish growth; however, the negative effect was minimized with increasing native richness. The zooplankton grazer community was modified by a top-down effect from the invader that increased the amount of phytoplankton. Neither the invader nor richness treatments influenced total phosphorus or community metabolism. Overall, the invader reduced resources for native species; and the effect scaled with how the invader was incorporated into the community. Higher native diversity mitigated the impact of the invader, confirming the need to consider biodiversity when predicting the impacts of invasive species.     

A comparison of different biogeographical classifications of Europe,Great Britain and Spain

Various biogeographical and bioclimatic classifications of a number of regions, countries and continents have been created to meet different objectives. A policy maker might ask the question 'why is there no single accepted classification and how do the different classifications compare with one another?' In order to answer these two questions three classifications created by different methods for Great Britain and two for Spain are compared using the Kappa statistic. All of the classifications were created from data on cellular grids with a set window size. Further non-statistical comparisons are made with other classifications. The biogeographic classifications studied in this paper produced three different types of zone: those that were always identified whatever the method; those that were broadly similar but where the boundaries differed; and those that were unique to a particular classification. These different types of zone are likely to exist for any comparison between classifications of a particular region. The extent of the geographic window from which data were obtained had a major effect on the classification of grid cells at the edges of the window. For example, the few grid cells in the south of England, with characteristics of continental Europe, are not detected if data from Great Britain alone are used for the classification. We conclude that the data window should always be larger than the area for which the classification is being made. The objective Kappa statistic, although useful, was not capable of discerning similarities and dissimilarities that appear obvious to the subjective human eye. Although the details of the classifications differed there were broad similarities between the classifications and these differences reflect important divisions along major environmental axes that have been inferred by earlier biogeographers. As the divisions are real there is a sound basis for their use in future land use or environmental policy.     

Effectiveness of national air pollution control policies on the air quality in metropolitan areas of China

Understanding the effectiveness of national air pollution controls is important for control policy design to improve the future air quality in China. This study evaluated the effectiveness of major national control policies implemented recently in China through a modeling analysis. The sulfur dioxide （SO2） control policy during the llth Five Year Plan period （2006-2010） had succeeded in reducing the national SO2 emission in 2010 by 14% from its 2005 level, which correspondingly reduced ambient SO2 and sulfate （SO42-） concentrations by 13%-15% and 8%-10% respectively over east China. The nitrogen oxides （NOx） control policy during the 12th Five Year Plan period （2011-2015） targets the reduction of the national NOx emission in 2015 by 10% on the basis of 2010. The simulation results suggest that such a reduction in NOx emission will reduce the ambient nitrogen dioxide （NO2）, nitrate （NO3-）, 1-hr maxima ozone （03） concentrations and total nitrogen deposition by 8%, 3%-14%, 2% and 2%--4%, respectively over east China. The application of new emission standards for power plants will further reduce the NO2, NO3-, 1-hr maxima 03 concentrations and total nitrogen deposition by 2%-4%, 1%-%, 0-2% and 1%-2%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the inter-provincial impacts of emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta, which indicated the need to implement joint regional air pollution control.     

Evaluation of health benefit using BenMAP-CE with an integrated scheme of model and monitor data during Guangzhou Asian Games

Guangzhou is the capital and largest city(land area:7287 km2)of Guangdong province in South China.The air quality in Guangzhou typically worsens in November due to unfavorable meteorological conditions for pollutant dispersion.During the Guangzhou Asian Games in November 2010,the Guangzhou government carried out a number of emission control measures that significantly improved the air quality.In this paper,we estimated the acute health outcome changes related to the air quality improvement during the 2010 Guangzhou Asian Games using a next-generation,fully-integrated assessment system for air quality and health benefits.This advanced system generates air quality data by fusing model and monitoring data instead of using monitoring data alone,which provides more reliable results.The air quality estimates retain the spatial distribution of model results while calibrating the value with observations.The results show that the mean PM_2.5concentration in November 2010 decreased by 3.5μg/m~3 compared to that in 2009 due to the emission control measures.From the analysis,we estimate that the air quality improvement avoided 106 premature deaths,1869 cases of hospital admission,and 20,026 cases of outpatient visits.The overall cost benefit of the improved air quality is estimated to be 165 million CNY,with the avoided premature death contributing 90%of this figure.The research demonstrates that Ben MAP-CE is capable of assessing the health and cost benefits of air pollution control for sound policy making.     

Recipient and observer reactions to discipline: are managers experiencing wishful thinking?

A qualitative study of recipients' and observers' reactions to discipline events was conducted. Data from 123 recipient interviews and 46 observer interviews were content analyszed and categorized. Results showed that while both groups see positive results from discipline, recipients and observers may lose respect for the discipliner, and may develop negative attitudes toward the organization as a consequence of the discipline. They are also likely to perceive the discipline event as unfair, especially when discipline is applied for informal as opposed to formal rule violations. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.